Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine: Russia has lost the war

Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Associated Press


former Chinese embassyUkraineAmbassador Gao Yusheng recently said that when and how the Russo-Ukrainian war will end is no longer up to Russia; In fact, Russia has “already lost.” He predicts that Russia will be expelled from some important international organizations and that there will be a new wave of “de-Russianization” in the former Soviet Union.

He said more clearly, in the so-called Russian PresidentPutin(Vladimir Putin’s revival is basically a “false proposition that does not exist”; Russia has never recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other ex-Soviet states,” often infringing on their territories and sovereignty. “, which is the Eurasian region. The greatest threat to peace, security and stability.


The China International Finance 30 Forum and the Department of International Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently held an internal seminar via video, focusing on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on China and the global situation. Gao Yusheng, who was stationed in Ukraine from 2005 to 2007, was invited to speak.

After the video of his speech surfaced on the Chinese Internet, it was immediately removed, but the contents of the speech, allegedly edited by Gao Yusheng himself, can still be found on the Hong Kong “Phoenix Network”.

Gao Yusheng is a retired career diplomat who, in addition to Ukraine, served as ambassador to former Soviet states such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. He was invited by units in the system to share his views, but even the content of his revised speech did not correspond to the “main theme”, which showed that Russia and Russia within the CCP There are differing opinions on how to handle relationships with Putin regime.

On the other hand, Gao Yusheng’s speech also revealed that China does not agree with Russia about Russia’s view of the former Soviet Union, which as Russia’s “exclusive” sphere of influence, includes the Far East, Central Asia, the Caucasus and the East. Covers Europe.

Russia’s full-fledged offensive against Ukraine on 24 February did not end within a week, as many in the world expected. China, which has special strategic interests in both Russia and Ukraine, has attracted much attention.

Gao Yusheng pointed out that Russia has become increasingly passive on the battlefield and has shown signs of failure. He analyzed that the main reasons for Russia’s failure include Russia’s continued decline in the fields of economy, military, science and technology, politics and society after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which is related to the mistakes of the ruling group’s domestic. and foreign policies.

He noted that Russia has not been able to fight Ukraine quickly, but that Russia’s economic power far outweighs its so-called “military superpower” status, and that delays in the war have caused a heavy burden.

Gao Yusheng pointed out that modern warfare is bound to be a “mixed war”, involving military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence and other areas, and that Russia has “already lost” in all areas. “, and it’s only a matter of time before finally giving up.

However, Gao Yusheng does not rule out that the war could be escalating and expanding, as the goals of the parties are completely opposed and opposed.

Gao Yusheng pointed out that ensuring ownership of Crimea and effective annexation of eastern Ukraine is clearly the bottom line for Russia, and that Ukraine will not make concessions to Russia on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

On the other hand, the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union continue to increase their efforts to aid Ukraine. The United States passed the Lend-Lease Act for the first time since World War II. The Ukraine Defense Ministers’ Meeting will internationalize and institutionalize Ukrainian military aid. Various events suggest that the war will be fought until “Russia is defeated and punished”.

As for the new international order created by the war, Gao Yusheng pointed out that Russia’s foreign policy was “a mixture of the former Soviet Union and the Tsarist Empire.” The basic and primary direction of the foreign policy of the Putin regime is to “see the former Soviet Union as its special sphere of influence.” , restore the empire through the “unification” mechanism dominated by Russia.

Gao Yusheng explicitly stated that to achieve this goal, Russia “did its words and reneged on its promises to gain weight” and did not truly recognize the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet countries. Granted, but the Russo-Ukrainian War changed that drastically. Situation.

Gao Yusheng pointed out that after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, anti-Russian sentiment has increased in Ukraine, and that most Ukrainians, “not only in the West, but also in the East”, are in the EU and NATO. support joining. ,

After the outbreak of war, Ukraine, regardless of party, region or class, united to oppose Russia and save the country. Russia can be said to have “completely lost Ukraine”. Also, exceptBelarusIn addition, the countries of the former Soviet Union refused to support Russia. After the defeat, Russia would completely lose the possibility of restoring its empire.

In addition, Gao Yusheng predicted that Russia could be expelled from some important international organizations, and that its international status would decrease significantly. Ukraine will break away from Russia’s sphere of influence (if Russia still has it) and become a member of the European family; Other ex-Soviet states may have experienced a new wave of de-Russianization to varying degrees.

He also mentioned that the United States and other Western countries will vigorously promote the fundamental reform of the United Nations and other important international organizations. “If reform is blocked, it may even start anew.” Whether reformed or renewed, countries like Russia can be excluded based on the ideology of democracy and freedom.

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