The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that the performance of the global economy next year will be as weak as in 2009 after the financial crisis and the nine-month-old Russia-Ukraine war could become “a war forever”.
Economists including Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortune wrote in a report on Thursday that global economic growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2023. After adjusting for base effects, the economy is expected to be as weak next year as in 2009.
“The magnitude of the hit to global GDP will largely depend on the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war,” the analysts wrote.PutinIt is life and death that decides.
president of ukraineZelenskyalso firmly stated that unlessRussiaWithdraw from all occupied territories, otherwise there will be no permanent solution to the war. In an interview with the Financial Times, he said that Russia‘s new strategy of destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure and blackening it would not weaken Ukraine’s resolve to liberate all occupied land.
The IIF estimates that the sharpest economic decline will be in Europe, which is also the region most affected by the war. The euro area economy is expected to shrink by 2% after a sharp drop in consumer and business confidence. US For the U.S., the IIF expects GDP to grow by 1%, while Latin America is expected to grow by 1.2%.
According to the IIF, the biggest driver of the global economy next year will be China, as they are likely to ease pandemic containment restrictions.