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The threats to the ruble exchange rate by the end of the year are named

Economy NewsThe threats to the ruble exchange rate by the...

In a conversation with the Prime agency, Oleksandr Bezdolnyi, a resident of the CSR’s expert club, named threats to the ruble’s exchange rate by the end of the year.

The expert noted that the prospects are more favorable than negative. Over the past six months, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar by 4.5 percent. In his view, further strengthening should be expected, despite the “result” of capital from emerging markets.

Bezdolny explained that the ambiguity of the situation is the decline in market interest in the assets of catching-up countries. He noted that this is due to the expectation of changes in US monetary policy (MIC). “By the end of the year, the reduction of the QE program may begin – which means the beginning of the end of the era of” cheap money “, which, among other things, inflated the value of assets of developing countries,” – said the expert.

Also in 2022, the US Federal Reserve rate may increase. This will increase the attractiveness of American securities, said Bezdolny. This may lead to falling exchange rates of “third” countries. Russia is currently avoiding this threat due to the rapid recovery of the economy and expensive oil, but in 2022 the factors that play into the hands of the Russian currency may be exhausted, the expert said.

According to Bezdolny, other major risks to the ruble are new US sanctions on the purchase of Russian public debt on the secondary market for American investors and the possibility of a new economic crisis. The expert added that in the event of a crisis, interest in Russian assets will decline, and this will hit the ruble.

Earlier it was reported that the Central Bank (CB) assesses the impact of the ruble’s dynamics on inflation as neutral. Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank Kirill Tremasov said that the ruble is now where it was a year ago, and even became a little stronger. At the same time, he noted that taking into account all the accumulated inflation during this time, the Russian currency has strengthened in real terms.

Экономика

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