On the 19th that the Trump campaign team has assessed, based on data analysis, that former President Trump has a strong chance of obtaining the Republican presidential nomination for the 2024 election. The campaign aims to face President Biden in a rematch. According to a senior manager of the Trump campaign, internal and external polling assessments indicate that Trump is expected to secure a significant number of party representative votes by the “Super Tuesday” on March 5 next year, when multiple state primaries will be held simultaneously. By that time, Trump is projected to obtain 973 party representative votes. By March 19, the number of votes is expected to increase to 1,478.
To be nominated as a presidential candidate by the Republican Party, a candidate must secure at least 1,215 party delegate votes. The Trump campaign team believes that Trump will comfortably cross this threshold. The team also assesses that in the 2024 general election, Trump and Biden will once again face off, with the battleground states map expanding further. The director of the Trump campaign team stated that in addition to the swing states that played a crucial role in determining the outcome in 2016 and 2020, traditionally Democratic-leaning states such as Michigan, New Hampshire, and Virginia will also become battlegrounds between the two parties in 2024.
During a media briefing at the Trump Private Golf Club in Florida on the morning of the 18th, Trump expressed his campaign team’s determination to win the election. He stated that they would not adopt a “prevent defense” strategy but would instead use all their strength to secure victory. The director of the Trump campaign team further highlighted that current polls indicate Trump is expected to secure 292 electoral votes in the 2024 election, while Biden is projected to have 246 electoral votes.
It is worth noting that some anti-Trump Republicans have expressed skepticism regarding Trump’s chances of winning the election. The Democratic U.S. Representative from Minnesota, Dean Phillips, launched an election ad in New Hampshire through a super PAC, warning that Trump could defeat Biden. However, this message has not deterred the Trump campaign team’s confidence. The Washington Post analyzed that federal special prosecutor Jack Smith is currently prosecuting Trump for alleged interference in the 2020 election. If Trump secures the Republican nomination in March next year, the trial schedule may overlap. Trump argues that as a former president, he has immunity from prosecution and has appealed to the Supreme Court. As a result, Smith’s prosecution has been suspended pending a Supreme Court decision.
the Trump campaign team is optimistic about their chances of securing the Republican presidential nomination for the 2024 election. Based on data analysis and polling assessments, they believe Trump will surpass the required delegate votes. The campaign team also anticipates a rematch between Trump and Biden in the general election, with an expanded battleground states map. However, potential legal challenges loom as Trump faces prosecution for alleged interference in the 2020 election. The outcome of these legal proceedings may impact the campaign’s trajectory.