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US intelligence warns Russia may invade Ukraine in 2022

U.S.A.US intelligence warns Russia may invade Ukraine in 2022

According to US intelligence, the Russian military will enter Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border and Belarus with about 100 battalion tactical groups (Vasily Maximov/AFP/Archive).

The United States shared intelligence with its European allies showing a build-up of Russian troops and artillery prepared for a rapid and large-scale invasion of Ukraine from several locations., amid growing concerns from Washington about the possible intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The United States relayed that intelligence, which includes maps, to some NATO members last week., according to sources familiar with the matter came to the fore bloomberg,

According to intelligence gathered by the United States, Russian troops will cross from Crimea into Ukraine, through the Russian border and Belarus, approx. 100 Battalion Tactical Group, possibly around 100,000 soldiers, in an operation which will be carried out in rough terrains and in adverse weather conditions. This will potentially be a long lasting profession, according to the information.

According to two sources cited by US media, About half of that number strategic groups were already in position and any offensive would be supported by air support.

A BTR-82A armored vehicle (REUTERS / Vitaly Never) during military exercises conducted by the forces of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy at the Khmelevka firing range on the Baltic Sea coast in the Kaliningrad region in 2019
A BTR-82A armored vehicle (REUTERS / Vitaly Never) during military exercises conducted by the forces of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy at the Khmelevka firing range on the Baltic Sea coast in the Kaliningrad region in 2019

what’s more, Russia secretly summoned thousands of reservists on a scale unprecedented in post-Soviet times, According to sources, the purpose of the reservists would be to secure the area once the tactical battalions pave the way.

The United States also shared information about the exponential increase in propaganda against Kiev. And that Moscow had recruited agents to try to destabilize Ukraine.

Putin’s intentions an enigma

The concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine has surprised US officials And after sanctioning Russia for it, the response of the Joe Biden administration has been complicated. role in conflict Ukraine, cyber attacks on US infrastructure and interference in US elections.

Some Republican lawmakers are pressuring the United States to increase military support for Ukraine. But it could turn a simple Putin display into a full-blown confrontation that only escalates the threat to Ukraine and could trigger an energy crisis in Europe.

But a weak US response has its risks. This could encourage Putin to take more aggressive action against Ukraine as fears grow that he may attempt to seize more of its territory. And that could cause more political damage to the president. Joe Biden At a time when its popularity is declining.

US President Joe Biden, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, shake hands upon arrival at the US-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021.  (EFE / EPA / DENIS BALIBOUSE)
US President Joe Biden, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, shake hands upon arrival at the US-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021. (EFE / EPA / DENIS BALIBOUSE)

Knowing how to strike the right balance would be easier if the United States had a better understanding of what Putin is trying to achieve. but Top officials admit they don’t know.

“We’re not sure what Mr. Putin is doing.”Last Wednesday the Defense Secretary said Lloyd Austin, A week ago, the Secretary of State, Antony Blink, said: “We are not clear about Moscow’s intentions, but we do know their playbook.”, alluding to the Russian strategy of gathering forces near the border and then attacking,”falsely claiming that it was instigated”.

Representative mike quigleyA Democrat from Illinois and a member of the House Intelligence Committee said a better understanding of Putin’s intentions was important.”To avoid the mistakes that have started the great wars”,

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Any feedback from the United States must be calibrated to avoid “a pacifier or provocateur”, said.

“It’s a tough area, it’s hard to try to find information”, said. “This is a challenge that is more difficult or more difficult than ever. It has a very serious impact on our ability to make the right decisions.”

Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine between Kiev and Russian-backed rebels in the region known as donbass left the guess 14,000 dead.

Russian tanks and equipment at the Pogonovo training area near Voronezh, Russia on April 10 (Maxor Technologies/Reuters)
Russian tanks and equipment at the Pogonovo training area near Voronezh, Russia on April 10 (Maxor Technologies/Reuters)

diplomatic effort

America’s allies are also increasingly concerned. Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Friday that the Coalition is experiencing a “Unusual concentration” of Russian forces Along the Ukrainian border, he warned that Moscow had used similar forces to intervene in neighboring countries in the past.

Although US officials believe an invasion is not imminent, Putin has also stepped up his campaign against an independent Ukraine. A lengthy essay published by the Kremlin in July states that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” So what “True sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only with the cooperation of Russia.”

but the measurement can also be a Saber rattles to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the West Or to enlist in NATO, something Putin strongly opposes. It is not clear whether Russia will risk invading Ukraine, wage a more difficult war or seek to annex hostile territory.

United States President Joe Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on September 1 in Washington, DC.  (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)
United States President Joe Biden and Ukraine‘s President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on September 1 in Washington, DC. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)

Similar Russian military formations did not lead to an invasion in the spring.However, lawmakers and officials say they are more concerned now, citing US intelligence.

Russia denies aggressive intentions, insisting it is responding to increased NATO activities near its borders and Strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

White House said it hopes to ease tensions, “As we have made clear in the past, intensive or aggressive action by Russia will be of great concern to the United States,” a spokesman for the National Security Council said in a statement.

There has been a wave of diplomacy in recent weeks. US leaders have met with their Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, including a visit by the CIA director. William Burns, went to Moscow, during which he spoke to Putin on the phone. Germany and France issued a joint statement reaffirming their support for Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Western denied the allegations on Monday That Moscow is planning an invasion of Ukraine. “The Americans are painting a terrifying picture of a horde of Russian tanks that will begin to crush Ukrainian cities,” SVR said in a statement to Russian news agencies, adding that they have ‘credible information’ of Russian intentions. “Absolutely false”.

(With information from Bloomberg and the AP)

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