US military concludes: Taiwan Straits war will not be resolved quickly and must be prepared in advance

The picture shows the Honghuang No 37 actual military exercise of the Taiwan National Army in 2021. Officers and soldiers of the Guandu Command of the Army’s Sixth Army Corps are guarded by guns, simulating an enemy attack from the mouth of the Danshui River.Central News Agency


According to a civil war game in the United States, under the hypothetical situation of China’s full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2027, it would launch preemptive attacks on US military bases, and even use nuclear weapons. . Experts involved in the military push believe that the war will be prolonged, and that not only the United States, but also Australia and Japan, must increase their combat capabilities to quickly respond to the communist invasion of Taiwan and its You should prepare for it years in advance. ,

NBC reported that the fictitious military operation was planned by US lawmakers, former Pentagon officials and Chinese experts.WashingtonThe sub-station broadcast some of the contents of the military push plan in April. It took about five hours to push the teams involved and the Pentagon usually took five days.


This military push is meant to examine the possible scenario of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as the world currently has to deal with a Russian invasion.Ukrainepreliminary results.

The push was planned in collaboration with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a Washington-based think tank. US officials in various departments and governments in the Asia-Pacific region are concerned about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Just this week, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said “an important area of ​​concern” for US intelligence officials is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s intention to forcibly take over Taiwan.

Haynes told the US Congress: “China will prefer a forced integration approach that avoids armed conflict. At the same time,BeijingThe officers are also ready to use military force if needed. ,

The gist of the pushing players is that if China invades Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific will be plunged into an extensive and protracted war, and the United States may also be directly attacked, including Hawaii and the continental United States. are also included.

CNAS experts pointed out: “After the first week of the conflict, neither Beijing nor Washington is likely to prevail, which means that China’s invasion of Taiwan will eventually become a protracted conflict. This military push shows that the conflict is not going to prevail. could escalate rapidly, and China and the United States would cross the red line.”

As a result of the push, an escalation in the conflict could also lead to China’s use of nuclear weapons, and US officials are concerned that Russia could do the same against Ukraine. The reason China is using nuclear weapons is because Beijing has limited capacity to respond with conventional weapons.

Furthermore, like the case against Russia, this military push also found that the United States’ efforts to prevent China from invading Taiwan would not be successful. This prompted pushback participants to outline a range of measures that Taiwan, the United States and allies should take to strengthen deterrents.

The military push also revealed an important issue that it is more difficult for the United States to defend and aid Taiwan than American measures against Ukraine. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is largely united in the defense of Ukraine, which is the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific. stronger than the alliance. Ukraine’s geographical location also makes it easier to obtain aid than in Taiwan.

Mike Holmes, a retired US Air Force general, explained: “We have a border with Ukraine, and we can send supplies there. Taiwan is beyond the sea.”

Another point to push is that the United States should consider whether to arm Taiwan before there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, because once China begins an invasion, transporting weapons to Taiwan is very difficult. will be difficult.

The findings of this military push also included recommendations for the United States, Australia, and Japan to further strengthen their capabilities to respond quickly to China’s invasion of Taiwan, and suggestions that the United States may seek bases in the region. strengthens, procures more long-range, precision-guided weapons, and enhances underwater capabilities.

Overall, all sectors of society should be prepared for a protracted struggle with heavy casualties that will not be a quick-fix government takeover, according to the CNAS’s conclusion.

Former US Deputy Secretary of Defense, Michele Flournoy, said the military push was evidence that the US and Taiwan needed to take action now, such as “pre-positioning warships, to help prepare Taiwan for war.” , the pre-position of you (Taiwan). Armed Forces, etc.”


The picture shows the Hanguang No 37 live ammunition exercise of the Taiwan National Army in 2021.
The picture shows the Hanguang No 37 live ammunition exercise of the Taiwan National Army in 2021. The main fighters of the National Army IDF, F-16V (Block 20), Mirage 2000 and E-2 early warning aircraft took off and landed at close range, attracting various media and large numbers of people coming to watch the shooting. Central News Agency

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